Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
