Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
